Friday, November 21, 2014

Will HELOCs cause another crash?

Back in June, the Wall Street Journal published a chart very similar to the mortgage payment shock chart that alerted me to the original subprime crisis back in '05.  This time the payment shock is on tens of billions in home equity lines of credit.



The magnitude is roughly the same as the subprime crisis, except since these are second mortgages and the housing market has barely recovered, there is almost no collateral behind them.   Wells Fargo is most at risk.

I continue to be invested in gold because of two things I learned from the last crash.  I found out that the system was even closer to total collapse than I thought and I was lucky that I didn't get wiped out be being "too" right.  I also learned that if I had simply invested in gold, I would have made just as much profit as all of my risky perfectly timed derivative trades and short sales, but with no risk of a systemic collapse wiping me out.

long gold.

good luck!

2 comments:

bret morriss said...

So what are the vehicles to short? Other than gold. Are there CDSs on HELOCs?

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