Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Voltron rants

Voltron says:  The furor over AIG bonuses masks the true crime.  The bonuses represent 1/10th of 1% of the $150 billion (and counting) of government "loans" that AIG has no chance of paying back.  All of the money going to AIG is going straight out the door to pay off bad Credit Default Swap bets made with Goldman Sachs, hedge fund speculators, and foreign banks such as Barclay's, UBS (Swiss Bank) and Societe General.  The administration keeps saying that "credit is the life blood of the economy" but China's philosophy is "production is the life blood of the economy".  Who do you think is going to win that debate?  If you borrow money to invest in production, you can pay it back with interest and perhaps turn a profit.  If you squander the money of flat screen TVs, vacations, and overpriced houses, there is no way you can pay it back.  Since T-Bills are just claims of future taxes, by extension, there is no way that will get paid back either.  Sure the government will pay back the notional amounts due, but the dollars will be practically worthless.  It sounds nuts, but we've had a new currency regime every thirty years or so since the country was founded.  Why would you think the current paper money regime with no collateral backing it would be the final regime for the ages.  It's absurd to think that.  The correct play is to short stocks and buy gold for now and be prepared to short treasuries in earnest.  The Fed is not going to make this easy, they are going to try to shake out the short sellers, depress the price of gold and prop up Treasuries.  Don't be afraid to "fight the Fed" and don't feel foolish when they move the market against you.  Take advantage of these moves to accumulate more BUT DO NOT USE LEVERAGE OR YOU WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT.

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